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Author Topic: F1 may be suspended till June  (Read 421 times)

Offline Dare



"The
democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those
who are
willing to work and give to those who would not."
--
Thomas
Jefferson

Offline Jericoke

Re: F1 may be suspended till June
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2020, 03:14:42 PM »
  • Publish
  • It certainly sucks, but the only fair way to treat fans and stake holders is to give plenty of notice about what's going on so we can plan our lives as much as possible.

    I'm glad the FIA is being decisive, and I hope that things clear up quickly, and we can get some of the races rescheduled. 

    Offline John S

    Re: F1 may be suspended till June
    « Reply #2 on: March 13, 2020, 06:27:10 PM »
  • Publish
  • I thought I'd planned my life, for the next 6 months anyway. I took out a special no cancel deal with Sky TV sports at start of testing only now to be faced with more than 3 months without F1 to watch when I've paid up just for that. Grrrh  >:(  Where do I apply for compo?  :crazy:

    Wouldn't mind if we were talking about black death plague going round the world, but this virus total risk  - as far as I can make out - is 1 to 1.5% death rate and it's by no means certain more than half the world population may even get it. Most of the world economy is facing chaos from investor and government panic, surely that's a bigger threat than the virus itself.  :confused:
    Racing is life - everything else is just waiting. (Steve McQueen)

    Offline Andy B

    Re: F1 may be suspended till June
    « Reply #3 on: March 13, 2020, 08:20:31 PM »
  • Publish

  • Wouldn't mind if we were talking about black death plague going round the world, but this virus total risk  - as far as I can make out - is 1 to 1.5% death rate and it's by no means certain more than half the world population may even get it.  :confused:

    I read yesterday that Influenza has a risk of death at 0.5% whereas COVID-19 is 3.5 to 5% so significantly higher and it's transmission rate is also higher so we are at greater risk from it.
    Interestingly though is that children up to 3 years of age seem to be unaffected and deaths are occurring with the aged, infirm and anyone with a health issue that reduces their immune system.

    Although I've not planned to go to a race this year I am due to travel to Japan, Germany, UK and Italy but not till June so its wait and see for us and currently NZ is less affected than most.
    Once you have retired every day is a Saturday!

    Offline lkjohnson1950

    Re: F1 may be suspended till June
    « Reply #4 on: March 13, 2020, 11:42:56 PM »
  • Publish
  • The virus spread so rapidly in Italy that officials are worried they will run out of hospital beds and medications. It may come down to someone needing to decide who gets treated and who doesn't.
    Lonny

    Offline John S

    Re: F1 may be suspended till June
    « Reply #5 on: March 14, 2020, 01:50:16 PM »
  • Publish


  • I read yesterday that Influenza has a risk of death at 0.5% whereas COVID-19 is 3.5 to 5% so significantly higher and it's transmission rate is also higher so we are at greater risk from it.
    Interestingly though is that children up to 3 years of age seem to be unaffected and deaths are occurring with the aged, infirm and anyone with a health issue that reduces their immune system.


    Your referring to the WHO - World Health Organisation figures Andy. They are only based on reported cases for the simple reason they have no other metric to call on.

    However many experts are predicting that about 80% of those infected with Corvid 19 have such weak symptoms that they do not report to or consult a doctor. The figures for death percentages look very different if you factor this in.

    I reckon these supposedly accurate yet purely arbitrary figures being churned out by respected authorities are only adding to the panic that seems have gripped the world.

    The biggest surprise for me is how the under 50 population is so manic about this virus when even the WHO states clearly that under 50 the risk is very, very low and kids face no discernible risk. 

    For myself at almost 70 I care not about the virus threat, if it's gonna get me it will, if not it'll be summat else - months or years - down the line.

         
    Racing is life - everything else is just waiting. (Steve McQueen)

    Offline Scott

    Re: F1 may be suspended till June
    « Reply #6 on: March 14, 2020, 01:55:45 PM »
  • Publish
  • Thatís exactly what I understand...that those infected are likely 10-100x of what is being reported.  The reported cases of course are only those confirmed by testing, and the vast majority havenít been tested.
    The Honey Badger doesn't give a...

    Offline cosworth151

    Re: F1 may be suspended till June
    « Reply #7 on: March 14, 2020, 03:23:30 PM »
  • Publish
  • Our governor here in Ohio gave a televised press conference to prevent panic - and caused a state wide rush of panic buying. He's a master of things like that.  :confused:  He does look like he was the only kid in his school who got bullied by the Glee Club.

    From what I've been able to find out, children age 10 and under are safe unless they have some other medical condition.
    ďYou can search the world over for the finer things, but you won't find a match for the American road and the creatures that live on it.Ē
    ― Bob Dylan

    Offline John S

    Re: F1 may be suspended till June
    « Reply #8 on: March 14, 2020, 05:24:50 PM »
  • Publish
  • Think you'll find it's anyone under 50 who's at low risk, it's us old timers most at risk - but hey who cares, not I - we've all got to go sooner or later
    Racing is life - everything else is just waiting. (Steve McQueen)

    Offline Dare

    Re: F1 may be suspended till June
    « Reply #9 on: March 14, 2020, 05:27:07 PM »
  • Publish
  • Think you'll find it's anyone under 50 who's at low risk, it's us old timers most at risk - but hey who cares, not I - we've all got to go sooner or later


    All things considered I prefer later
    "The
    democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those
    who are
    willing to work and give to those who would not."
    --
    Thomas
    Jefferson

    Offline Alianora La Canta

    Re: F1 may be suspended till June
    « Reply #10 on: March 14, 2020, 05:49:57 PM »
  • Publish
  • The virus spread so rapidly in Italy that officials are worried they will run out of hospital beds and medications. It may come down to someone needing to decide who gets treated and who doesn't.

    In Lombardy (north-west Italian region bordering France and near Monaco), some hospitals ran out of ventilators a week ago. 10% of those requiring tests for COVID-19 also require a ventilator, this is a big problem. It has reached the point where in critical locations, people over 65 with comorbidities are not even being seen, let alone tested or ventilated, because of triaging that resource. (When the system is that overwhelmed, inaccuracies in test/death ratio data go both ways). People are dying of things that had nothing to do with COVID-19, because the ventilators are all in use. (Those aren't included in the COVID-19 death rate either, because obviously the cause of that is insufficient equipment rather than a microbe).

    Anyone who is immuno-compromised, has anything that affects their upper respiratory/gastric system or is over 65 is at heightened risk of fatality. So even if I do have COVID-19, I should be fine. But if I had caught it while recovering from the laparotomy a couple of months ago, it would have been a big deal because at that point my immune system was busy protecting me from bugs that could access my abdomen via the cut that was healing there.

    It's only significant for healthy under-50s if they encounter people who are in one of the above categories. But as one of my colleagues said the day before I got ill, "I'm taking special measures to not get ill anyway, because I love my granddad".

    cos, has your state governor been to the same school of incident management as Boris Johnson? (He's just done the same in the UK, and we all thought it was bad enough when the toilet rolls were panic-bought off the shelves. Thankfully I use online ordering at the moment, and even got a discount on the toilet roll...)
    Percussus resurgio
    @lacanta (Twitter)
    http://alianoralacanta.tumblr.com (Blog/Tumblr)

    Offline Dare

    Re: F1 may be suspended till June
    « Reply #11 on: March 14, 2020, 11:39:31 PM »
  • Publish
  • The virus spread so rapidly in Italy that officials are worried they will run out of hospital beds and medications. It may come down to someone needing to decide who gets treated and who doesn't.


    Main reason is many Chinese workers that work in
    Italy came from the region in Chinia Cooron virus started.
    Seems like the Chinese are the biggest blame for not
    trying to control it sooner instead of putting their head in the sand
     
    "The
    democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those
    who are
    willing to work and give to those who would not."
    --
    Thomas
    Jefferson

    Offline monty

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    • Iím a cynical pessimistÖ.rarely disappointed!
    Re: F1 may be suspended till June
    « Reply #12 on: March 17, 2020, 03:25:19 PM »
  • Publish
  • This is a very worrying pandemic. However, apart from the actual illness, the biggest 'problems' are Statistics and Social Media.
    Because I am trying to show a duty of care to the staff in my two businesses I am trying to monitor 'the facts'.
    I have lost count of how many expert reports I have read. These reports cannot even agree how dangerous flu is! Some only consider 'seasonal flu' and ignore swine flu, bird flu, etc. Then the method of calculating the death rate attributed to flu is different from country to country and changes regularly. What has become obvious to me is that flu is so 'accepted' that the statistics are only really used to look for any significant change. The difference with Covid-19 is that it is being specifically looked for. Therefore, the rate of increase and the mortality rate will obviously look frightening. If there is any good news regarding Coronavirus - the deaths so far have been due to underlying illnesses (flu can cause deaths in otherwise healthy people).
    If the reality isn't bad enough we then get the cyber idiots putting complete nonsense out on social media. I have seen everything from a projected death toll of 30% of the World population to a claim that the virus doesn't really exist. Then there have been claims that the Russians released a biological weapon in China to ruin the Chinese economy and another claim that it started because the Chinese eat live bats (they don't!!). We all know that it started in a market where live animals and meat products were being traded close to each other (common in most Far Eastern Countries) and somehow a known animal virus jumped to humans. Nobody to blame - just something new for humanity to battle.

    Offline Dare

    Re: F1 may be suspended till June
    « Reply #13 on: March 18, 2020, 01:54:50 AM »
  • Publish
  • You ever wonder why so many viruses
    start in China?

     
    "The
    democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those
    who are
    willing to work and give to those who would not."
    --
    Thomas
    Jefferson

    Offline Alianora La Canta

    Re: F1 may be suspended till June
    « Reply #14 on: March 18, 2020, 11:25:15 AM »
  • Publish
  • Vulnerability factors for China:

    1) Almost a fifth of the world's population lives there. The more people a nation has, the more chance of having the first human carrier for any given communicable illness.

    2) Nearly all of them are carnivorous. This is primarily relevant in conjunction with the next few items, but it is the primary reason that India, which has nearly as high a population, is much less often the source of pandemics.

    3) Relatively heavy animal agricultural sector, both in terms of percentage and absolute numbers. Novel communicable illnesses most often start because of live animals transmitting to humans, so anywhere with large portions of the population raising farm animals is going to have increased risk. Rich nations are not immune to animal-to-human illnesses, as Britain providing the world with BSE in the mid-1990s shows. But it is live animals that tend to provide the communicable ones. The USA and India both have weaker animal agriculture sectors than China, despite both being substantial - the former because it has lots of prime land for growing grain, the latter because a lot of its people are vegetarian.

    4) The sheer size of the domestic market means there is incentive for some of these to be huge, many to be family farms aimed at serving all/part of a village, and every size in between. This makes it hard for a best-practise consensus that is feasible for all sizes. Many other countries either tend towards small-scale or large-scale, and therefore get to be firmer in what they demand for agricultural hygeine. The USA and EU avoid this problem by tailoring requirements to big operations (since that's where most American and European people get their food from). India's is less-enforced, but what is enforced tends to be things that every farmer in that area could reasonably do.

    5) Uneven distribution of information about best farming practises, including best hygeine practises. So some people simply do not know what options there are to do better in the field of not accidentally killing one's customers. This, at least, is changing due to China having the world's greatest penetration of smartphones, but information literacy skills haven't caught up, so not everyone is using it optimally for professional purposes such as farm hygeine.

    6) Lots of poverty in the countryside, making it more difficult to access and afford medical treatment - and ruling out self-isolation for many due to the need for income to meet survival bills. In COVID-19's case, it also means people are less likely to be protected against animal bites (e.g. by going to market by car) - a bat bite just before or during travel to market is believed to be the original infection point for the first case. This is the first risk factor China shares with the USA - except that the USA's heavy use of cars means bats and parasites are unlikely to be the animals giving new illnesses to Americans! For the USA, it would mostly affect ability for any initial cases to get treatment or testing.

    7) Much greater emphasis on community than other parts of the world (partly because that's the nature of impoverished rural villages, partly because of historic cultural factors) and more multi-generational families, leading to people being unable to self-isolate even if they can afford it (because other people are depending on them to do things, and they are themselves dependent on other people for other things). The USA and Europe are far more individualistic, which means that fewer people are in the initial circle of infection. This may also be a factor in why Italy has had a greater rate of fatalities from COVID-19 than other European nations - it tends to have multi-generational families under the same roof too.

    8) Hub-based movements. There are two sets of hub-based movements in China: people in rural villages going to a local town/city (and just to make it more vulnerable, a fair number take their live animals with them in both directions, because not all villages have an abbatoir) and people going from local town/city to regional hub cities. The regional hub cities are also "local cities" for their immediate rural area. This means getting from "one village affected" to "thousands affected" is a one-step or two-step process. Most places that have more even distribution of wealth than China have more distributed patterns of travel too. So people don't gather so much in a "hub", rather people go to many different places, but not all at the same time. This slows the movement of the illness and (usually) reduces the number of people who get infected.

    9) Wealth in the cities. So people there can access medical care, self-isolation and raise the alarm. This contrasts poorer nations, where the illness could go all the way through a city without being recognised as being novel (unless there happens to be a unique symptom or something like that).

    10) Good testing facilities in cities, so cases tend to be found as soon as the cities get it.

    11) Lots of regional flights, that vast numbers (in absolute terms) of Chinese people use on a regular basis. So it gets across the nation quickly, no matter how fast the reaction is.

    12) Massive international hub to everywhere in the world. So once the illness hits Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong or a few other key cities, international spread is inevitable. Thanks to 9), there's a good chance any given bug will. It also means there's a chance nations that are too poor to identify a bug in their location may find it goes to China, is identified there, and is then blamed on the Chinese even though someone else brought it in.

    13) Different approach to PR. This is the one thing for which blame can sensibly be put onto people, specifically the leadership. A propensity to downplay bad news is not wise in a crisis, as people then tend to downplay the need to take precautions. This was also a problem in Italy for COVID-19, and appears to be a problem in the UK and USA also. However, none of these three countries has anything like the same powerful causation chain as China. They all have breaks in the chain, so not only are they less likely to generate a new communicable illness, there's more chance of it getting stopped before it properly gets started.

    I am waiting to see if my board games club runs on Friday night. My guess is that either way, we will not be playing Pandemic as it is likely to be too close to home...
    Percussus resurgio
    @lacanta (Twitter)
    http://alianoralacanta.tumblr.com (Blog/Tumblr)

     


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