GPWizard F1 Forum
F1 News & Discussions => General F1 Discussion => Topic started by: Andy B on July 06, 2021, 06:13:08 AM
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Announced today in Aussie the 2021 GP is off due to the current pandemic.
I cannot say that I am surprised several states here are struggling to become COVID free and I should have been home on the 1st and now not flying till the 10th.
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Australia's done a better job than the UK of managing COVID, and if keeping F1 out helps it to keep secure until mass vaccination is possible, then I approve.
A lot of F1 staff are having severe problems already with keeping F1's chosen schedule, so keeping the current schedule of 23 races wouldn be a bad idea. The trouble is that so many of F1's races are in doubt that due to the 15-race TV contract, it may have to. I give you:
- All the EU races after Hungary [Belgium, Netherlands, Italy, any post-July substitution in the EU] - low-to-medium risk (the EU is threatening to treat the UK's actions as deliberate breach of the agreement made in November, which would entitle it to prevent British movement in the EU altogether. Given the UK's response and its COVID conduct, the risk increases the further into the season we go).
- Turkey - high-risk - UK red list prevents people from going there.
- Japan - high-risk - everything except the Olympics is in the process of being cancelled, as far as sporting competition goes.
- United States - medium-risk - the UK government has the right to put regions on the red list, not just countries, and Texas isn't making much progress towards vaccination-based immunity, rendering it vulnerable to, among other places...
- Mexico - high-risk - COVID is rife and it is unlikely the situation will be resolved in time.
- Brazil - high-risk - ditto
- Bahrain [potentially two races as it's one of the candidates for replacement] - high-risk - UK red list
- UAE [Abu Dhabi] - high-risk - UK red list
That's 6 races at high risk of not happening, at least 7-8 at medium risk of not happening and 10 at some risk of not occurring, out of 14 - not counting races unexpectedly lost to the Delta variant (I'd chalked Australia up as one, because losing the previous triple-header would have given time for quarantine). Note that we need another 6 races, out of 14, to meet TV obligations. Which Liberty swore it would provide. (It also told investors it would definitely get at least 20 races this season, which would require a miracle at this point).
So, despite the fact that the mechanics are struggling with the workload already (according to some of the drivers and journalists), expect Liberty to continue to try to shoehorn as many races as possible into the 2021 calendar to meet its own ends.
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Alia I see you're outlining a worst case scenario, however if F1 can get all races in Europe (incl Russia) done by end Sept then they will satisfy the TV contracts.
I've not seen, or heard, any rumblings about Hungary, Belgium, Netherlands, Italy or Russia not allowing races to go ahead - has anyone else? In fact if Max is still top, or near top, and the EU tries to kill the Dutch GP I feel there may be an insurrection, similar to mass arrival at Capital hill in US, at Brussels base of EU Commission. ;)
Hard to think that the Middle East back to back races at end of season wont happen, if British & Italian teams have to quarantine after, in home countries, it will be of no account really as it's season end.
Similar could happen with US & Mexico so long as border between 2 countries not shut, there'd be time to quarantine before the mid East races.
That'll make 17 races (or 19 if N America is on), anymore will be a bonus. Shareholders expecting 20 will happily accept 17 with such worldwide border and quarantine regulations this year.
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I think most countries would do well controlling Covid but as an example when the NSW lockdown started a group of Aussies decided to have a lockdown party and they are now contributing to the Covid numbers.
While people fail to comply with the rules then getting it under control anywhere is an issue.
I'm flying Darwin to Melbourne in the early hours of Saturday and by the end of the day hope to be back in NZ but to do this I have had to fill out documentation to prove I'm safe to travel. I have had one Covid test which was negative and will be having a Pre-departure test tomorrow to comply with NZ Gov regulations too.
If this is how the airlines and countries will be then traveling abroad will not be an easy process anymore.
Oh! I should have been home on the 1st July.
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Alia I see you're outlining a worst case scenario, however if F1 can get all races in Europe (incl Russia) done by end Sept then they will satisfy the TV contracts.
I've not seen, or heard, any rumblings about Hungary, Belgium, Netherlands, Italy or Russia not allowing races to go ahead - has anyone else? In fact if Max is still top, or near top, and the EU tries to kill the Dutch GP I feel there may be an insurrection, similar to mass arrival at Capital hill in US, at Brussels base of EU Commission. ;)
Hard to think that the Middle East back to back races at end of season wont happen, if British & Italian teams have to quarantine after, in home countries, it will be of no account really as it's season end.
Similar could happen with US & Mexico so long as border between 2 countries not shut, there'd be time to quarantine before the mid East races.
That'll make 17 races (or 19 if N America is on), anymore will be a bonus. Shareholders expecting 20 will happily accept 17 with such worldwide border and quarantine regulations this year.
That's because it's the EU doing the rumbling (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/25/balearic-officials-urge-madrid-to-tighten-covid-controls-on-uk-tourists), rather than consituent countries. (Note that there is not cross-EU consensus, as the German and Greek positions demonstrate, hence why the risk is low-to-medium and not high). If the EU requires British people to be blocked, then all the individual venues can do is comply - but the EU would have to convince the countries to put in the ban before it can happen in the first place.
Turkey would require the UK to actively change its position in order to happen. At this stage, the other proposed European races would not. Same applies to Brazil, Bahrain and UAE (Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is a place to which British people can travel for work). By "not allowed", I mean that unless it's for "essential purposes" (elite sports don't count even though they're exempt from some other aspects of the UK COVID law), UK people travelling to a red list country is illegal, punishable by fines of up to £10,000 each - and insurance for non-essential purposes (again, elite sport is deemed non-essential) doesn't cover red list, which means the UK teams couldn't comply with the FIA requirement to be insured for anything that might go wrong at the track. (I think the Italian teams could get insurance but might face legal consequences on their return, depending on whether the FIA felt it was worth running the championship round for 3 teams - Alfa Romeo, being Swiss, I think is free to go where it wants if it quarantines afterwards).
That's why Turkey got dropped when the UK put it on its red list. That's why it's likely to get dropped again.
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Gee, if it's any help I have had both shots now?
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If the EU requires British people to be blocked, then all the individual venues can do is comply - but the EU would have to convince the countries to put in the ban before it can happen in the first place.
The EU doesn't have the authority to require British people to be blocked. It would have to be done by consensus and I don't see that happening. The tourist dependent countries are trying to save as much of the tourist season as they can, and the British are a huge part of that.
I think the European season is safe as long as the increase in cases doesn't lead to a surge in deaths. So far whilst the cases are sky rocketing again, deaths are not. Hopefully the vaccines ensure this remains the case.
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Many in the US won't get the shot because of
one person[no name mentioned] made it political
even though he secretly was vaccinated back in January.
A golden role model
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Between that & the arrival of the Delta variant, some states are having their highest Covid hospitalization numbers of the pandemic.
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If the EU requires British people to be blocked, then all the individual venues can do is comply - but the EU would have to convince the countries to put in the ban before it can happen in the first place.
The EU doesn't have the authority to require British people to be blocked. It would have to be done by consensus and I don't see that happening. The tourist dependent countries are trying to save as much of the tourist season as they can, and the British are a huge part of that.
The EU does have that authority if it believes the trade agreement between itself and Britain has been breached - in fact, it's required to do so unless something less can be negotiated and agreed by consensus. The higher UK COVID rates get, the more impetus certain countries (mentioning no names, Germany) have to persuade those who assess such things that such a breach happened. (Remember, much of the EU is far less vaccinated than the UK).
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Having just returned from Darwin via Melbourne, I only transited through the airport, the documentation is huge and important we needed a permit to enter Victoria, a permit to enter NZ, to be an NZ citizen, have had a Covid test negative within 72 hours of flying and in airports of which there were three we had all docs checked and temperatures taken.
It was a relief to get through and discovering our docs were all correct but it takes time so Melbourne deciding to cancel the GP to protect the populace is a wise move by them. We were on a 10 day trip which took 21 due to lockdowns and boarder closures.
Keep safe people!
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It has just been announced that the Delta Variant has jumped the NSW/Victoria boarder and is now in Melbourne so it seems to justify the cancellation of the F1 and Moto GP's.
Willy it was interesting that going through the whole process of documentation and Covid testing we were not once asked if we had been vaccinated, which we have had both Pfizer jabs, so being vaccinated counts for little when travelling.
Keep safe everyone.
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Andy, that surprises me as we are being asked to be able to prove we are vaccinated if we are questioned by the Police. Not sure why they would ask unless there are random spot-checks planned.
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Most business here have a sign saying you don't have to
wear a mask if your fully vaccinated. Problem is no one ever
ask for proof you've been jabbed
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Even if you are vaccinated please wear a mask when required the vaccine will stop you from becoming very ill but it'll not stop you from getting Covid.
Keep safe people and do the right thing.
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Legally, everyone (vaccinated or not) is required to wear masks indoors in public places until Monday. In practise, most people stopped doing it here a couple of weeks ago when the government first mooted that change.
Result? Cases are up a lot (2.6% positivity in my local area and rising) and we're starting to get an increase in hospitalisations despite 2/3 of adults being vaccinated. It's worrying because we've had indications that if the hospitalisations go up much more, non-urgent surgeries and appointments will be delayed/cancelled - and this is before any infections from the Euro 2020 final (which I am sure some people in my area attended in person and others gathered maskless in local pubs) and the British Grand Prix (another event with over 100,000 likely-maskless people in attendance) have revealed themselves.
At this rate, UK will be in lockdown #4 by the end of next month, whether the government wants that or not.
You will not be surprised to hear, given all that, that I expect to wear a mask when outside the house for the foreseeable future (probably until next spring, given the patterns so far).
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Melbourne now has eight community cases of the Delta variant and are talking of a short lockdown which would I expect get extended.
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Result? Cases are up a lot (2.6% positivity in my local area and rising) and we're starting to get an increase in hospitalisations despite 2/3 of adults being vaccinated. It's worrying because we've had indications that if the hospitalisations go up much more, non-urgent surgeries and appointments will be delayed/cancelled - and this is before any infections from the Euro 2020 final (which I am sure some people in my area attended in person and others gathered maskless in local pubs) and the British Grand Prix (another event with over 100,000 likely-maskless people in attendance) have revealed themselves.
Yeah, the problem is that with 2/3 of the adult population vaccinated it still leaves millions unvaccinated. That's plenty of hosts for the virus to spread through. Plus it seems the virus will spread through vaccinated hosts as well, they just won't get so ill.
As for Wembley stadium, the place looked packed and not a mask in site, except on the players bench! It's like we haven't just lived through 18 months of a deadly air borne virus!!!
If there is any consolation for the UK, we're making the same mistakes in continental Europe :( I feel we're living in a period where we elect leaders who want reality to adapt to their political aims and not the other way round...
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You can look at the UK to see where 5 years of that gets you. (I'm going to be charitable and assume David Cameron's Conservatives weren't intentionally wanting reality to adapt to their political aims, because I think every politician accidentally does it to some extent. The art is doing it little enough that reality can in fact accommodate the aim).
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You can look at the UK to see where 5 years of that gets you. (I'm going to be charitable and assume David Cameron's Conservatives weren't intentionally wanting reality to adapt to their political aims, because I think every politician accidentally does it to some extent. The art is doing it little enough that reality can in fact accommodate the aim).
If only politicians, especially leaders, actually knew what reality looks like for most of us it'd be a start Alia.
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In spite of the arrival of Delta & rising hospitalization rates, our state legislature here in Ohio just voted that schools & businesses can't require Covid vaccinations, not even hospitals. :confused:
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Only way to reach herd immunity in the US is for
all the unvaccinated morons to catch Covid and
pass to a better place.
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Only way to reach herd immunity in the US is for
all the unvaccinated morons to catch Covid and
pass to a better place.
Steady on Dare I can feel your blood pressure rising from over here. :tease:
The good fortune for all of us is that covid takes to Morpheus just a small percentage of all who catch it.
Trouble is that punches a big hole in your aspirations Dare. :D
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The good fortune for all of us is that covid takes to Morpheus just a small percentage of all who catch it.
This is a clever one. It keeps it's hosts alive. This gives it time to evolve and mutate to spread more easily. The really big fear is that it becomes a regular virus like the flu which we can't fully defeat, because it keeps on mutating. Probably that's already happened.
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In spite of the arrival of Delta & rising hospitalization rates, our state legislature here in Ohio just voted that schools & businesses can't require Covid vaccinations, not even hospitals. :confused:
2 districts in Arizona were going to require unvaxxed students to quarantine before coming back, and our crooked governor told them absolutely not. None of the right wingers seem to realize that Trump and everyone in his circle were among the first to be vaccinated.
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There will be a third booster jab this year in some places and be ready for annual Covid jab along with your Flu jab.
I had an interesting conversation with an acquaintance who stated that he had never been vaccinated for anything but had had the Covid vaccine as "Want to travel" when asked why he had not had other vaccines he said he didn't know what was in them.
I worked in the production of bulk pharmaceuticals for over 30 years and said to him if I told what is used to make a drug would it make any difference to which he replied "maybe". So I did and he said he had no idea that was what happened I also asked him why he had not had polo, measles, mumps and many other diseases which is through others being vaccinated and reducing the risk to minimal.
I'll get off my soap box now! :crazy:
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In fairness, a lot of people I know only learned how to find out vaccine ingredients when checking the COVID-19 one (though none of them had avoided vaccines as a result of that ignorance - they'd simply gone along with vaccination efforts without reading the ingredients lists and without research).
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Only way to reach herd immunity in the US is for
all the unvaccinated morons to catch Covid and
pass to a better place.
Around here, Covid has been jokingly referred to as "voluntary eugenics."
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:DD :DD
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Melbourne now in lockdown again!
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The USA's US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has officially warned its citizens not to travel to the UK (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/map-and-travel-notices.html). This sounds like a prelude to barring non-essential travel between the two countries. (The proclamation barring non-US-resident UK citizens from travelling to the USA (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/25/proclamation-on-the-suspension-of-entry-as-immigrants-and-non-immigrants-of-certain-additional-persons-who-pose-a-risk-of-transmitting-coronavirus-disease/) unless spending 14 days elsewhere beforehand still applies).